Comments on: Flu flop (again) http://www.mostly-useless.com/blog/2010/01/06/flu-flop-again/ There is much pleasure to be gained from useless knowledge (Bertrand Russell) Mon, 22 Nov 2010 09:04:55 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1 By: Aaron Sherman http://www.mostly-useless.com/blog/2010/01/06/flu-flop-again/comment-page-1/#comment-5432 Aaron Sherman Tue, 19 Jan 2010 21:48:21 +0000 http://www.mostly-useless.com/blog/?p=494#comment-5432 Of course, it's easy in retrospect to say that there was nothing to worry about. But if you go back and look at the science that we had on hand when this flu first appeared, it was a perfect storm. First off, we'd just cracked the code of the 1918 flu and determined what it was that made it unique and probably made it so deadly. Second, we discovered a new strain of flu which bore many of the hallmarks of the 1918 flu's virulence. At the same time, this was a flu which, as far as we knew, had no existing resistances in the human population. Put those together and you have a basis for believing that a flu pandemic on par with 1918 was brewing. What we didn't know: 1) the current H1N1 strain has a close cousin that erupted during the 50s and 60s, and anyone exposed to that flu is unlikely to contract the current H1N1 2) though many of the hallmarks of the 1918 flu are present in the current H1N1, it appears not to have the link to complicating factors that killed so many in 1918 3) unseasonable cold throughout the U.S. slowed even what little infectious power this H1N1 strain had. So no, I don't think anything was done wrong. I'd rather mobilize massive effort around a disease that we have evidence for linking with 1918 rather than treat it like any other flu. If it happens to be a dud, I'm not going to complain about not dying. Of course, it’s easy in retrospect to say that there was nothing to worry about. But if you go back and look at the science that we had on hand when this flu first appeared, it was a perfect storm.

First off, we’d just cracked the code of the 1918 flu and determined what it was that made it unique and probably made it so deadly.

Second, we discovered a new strain of flu which bore many of the hallmarks of the 1918 flu’s virulence.

At the same time, this was a flu which, as far as we knew, had no existing resistances in the human population.

Put those together and you have a basis for believing that a flu pandemic on par with 1918 was brewing.

What we didn’t know: 1) the current H1N1 strain has a close cousin that erupted during the 50s and 60s, and anyone exposed to that flu is unlikely to contract the current H1N1 2) though many of the hallmarks of the 1918 flu are present in the current H1N1, it appears not to have the link to complicating factors that killed so many in 1918 3) unseasonable cold throughout the U.S. slowed even what little infectious power this H1N1 strain had.

So no, I don’t think anything was done wrong. I’d rather mobilize massive effort around a disease that we have evidence for linking with 1918 rather than treat it like any other flu. If it happens to be a dud, I’m not going to complain about not dying.

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